On the heels of a record-breaking 2020 Atlantic hurricanes season, the initial Colorado State University seasonal hurricane forecast is in, and it calls for a yet another above average season.
Here we go again: The first Atlantic hurricane seasonal forecast is in, and it calls for an above-average season in the Atlantic basin.
Colorado State University’s tropical meteorology department issued its first seasonal outlook on Thursday, and they’re calling for 17 named storms, eight hurricanes and four major hurricanes in the Atlantic. If that were to verify, it’d be well above the current 30-year average.
The Colorado State University seasonal tropical forecast for the Atlantic basin, led by Dr. Phil Klotzbach, often offers an early glimpse at how the upcoming hurricane season could lean.
The primary reasons behind the above-average forecast are a weak La Nina and warmer than usual sea-surface temperatures in the subtropical Atlantic. In addition, the forecast also calls for “an above-average probability for major hurricanes along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean.”
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) official forecast comes out next month.
Follows a Hyperactive 2020
Last season, of course, featured a record-setting 30 named storms, beating the old record from 2005.
Though there are a few asterisks behind that named storms figure, there’s little doubt that 2020 was an exceptional year. Not only did 30 named storms develop, 13 hurricanes and six major hurricanes also formed in the Atlantic basin a year ago.
Buoyed by warm sea-surface temperature and low wind shear, 2020’s storms started at a record pace in July and never really let up through the peak months of August, September and October.